Prediction about whether we will have wildflower super bloom in Arizona 2025

AZ Wildflower Super Bloom in 2025?

Spring in Arizona's Sonoran desert is a magical time, especially when wildflowers bloom in brilliant hues across this rugged and truly unique desert landscape. For those living in or visiting the Phoenix metro area, the Tonto National Forest near Mesa is a prime destination to witness this seasonal transformation that generally starts in early March. However, with 2024 being an unusually dry and hot year, many are wondering, including myself, will we see a strong wildflower season or super bloom in the spring of 2025?

A Hot & Dry 2024

The year 2024 has been marked by significantly lower-than-average rainfall across the Phoenix metro area, with many parts of the region experiencing drought conditions. According to my research, as of late 2024, rainfall totals are substantially below the norm. In addition to the lack of rainfall, 2024 has also been a notably very hot year with over 113 days of temperatures over 100 degrees recorded in the city of Phoenix which obliterated an old record. These high temperatures can further stress plant growth, especially in desert environments like the Tonto National Forest, where extreme heat can prevent seeds from germinating or cause them to wither before blooming.

Currently Very Dry Conditions

I can personally report that as of January 1st 2025, the conditions in the Tonto National near the lower Salt River Recreation area are as dry I have ever seen them. There has just been little or no rain recently and the summer monsoon was basically a bust in 2024 as far as generating any meaningful precipitation. As some of you may know I visit this area quite frequently as I photograph the Salt River wild horses that roam this part of the forest so i’m seeing the conditions first hand on a weekly basis and will continue to do so until late Spring in 2025.

The key factor influencing whether wildflowers will bloom in abundance is the amount of rain that falls in the winter and early spring months. Most wildflowers in the Sonoran Desert, including those in the Tonto National Forest like the Mexican Poppies, rely on robust winter rains to break dormancy and trigger germination. Without enough rain, many wildflower seeds remain dormant, and the plants that do germinate may fail to reach full bloom according to the research I have done.

2025 Wild Flower Season Prediction

On an optimistic note, its still too early to accurately predict whether we will see a strong desert wildflower bloom this spring. In addition, the Winter months in Arizona are considered the rainy season here in the desert so we will have to wait and see how things develop in the next few months. Though 2024’s dry and hot conditions suggest or portend a more subdued and less vibrant wildflower season in the Phoenix area, particularly in the Tonto National Forest, nature always has a way of surprising us. Hopefully we will see a couple (at least 3 or 4) of strong winter storms systems moving in from the Pacific coast over the next few months in 2025 that linger and provide a significant drenching to the currently parched desert environment here in the Phoenix area.

2025 Wildflower & Super Bloom Updates:

Anyway, stay tuned for updates about the Spring wildflower season here in the Phoenix AZ metro area. As we progress to early March I will periodically post updates on this blog post about significant weather and rain events that bode well for a good Sonoran desert wildflower season.

Prediction Updates:

1/3/2025: Guys, I stopped along the Bush Highway in the Lower Salt River Recreation area of the Tonto National Forest near Mesa to get an up close view of the current dry conditions in this very popular location to view Spring wildflowers. As you can see in the photo I posted below, the desert landscape here is currently brown and bone dry. Frankly, its as dry as I have ever seen it. As of right now there are no rain events on the horizon for the next 10 days according to the extended weather forecast. Anyway, I will post another update in a week or so.

1/16/2025: Guys, I visited the lower Salt River recreation area yesterday afternoon and found there has been no improvement regarding the extremely dry conditions in this well known hot spot to view Spring Wildflowers in the Phoenix metro area. I also checked the rain gauge for this area near Saguaro lake and they have recorded zero perception the last 3 weeks. Unfortunately there is no rain forecasted in the next 10 days either. Stay tuned! I will post another update at the end of the month….

Video Update Report #1 : You can view a wildflower season video report here on Youtube I recorded out in the field on Jan 3rd and see first hand what the current conditions look like as well as my short narrative. Please do me a favor and like and subscribe so you will be alerted about new video reports. I will try to post a new report every few weeks!

More Info: Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions about seeing wildflowers in Arizona or feel free to comment below. Below you will also find some of my favorite wildflower related images including many from 2023 superbloom.

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Current dry conditions in the Tonto National forest Jan 3rd 2025 — Current dry conditions in the Lower Salt River recreation area. This little valley here off Bush highway on the way to Saguaro lake is generally a great location with fairly easy access to see and experience Spring wildflowers and is featured in the short video below. Stay tuned for more updates…

Short video of Mexican Poppies in the Tonto National Forest March 29th, 2024. Although we did not experience a super bloom in 2024, it was a decent wildflower season.